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Agreeing With Cramer: 10 Reasons Google Is a Great Value Play - Seeking Alpha .go-next a { color:#024999 !important; } See the difference! Customize Seeking Alpha: Sign in or join var ms_slug = 'nflx,goog,msft'var article_dashboards = '@investing-ideas@'var article_sectors_themes = '@cramers-picks@sa-exclusive@'var ratings_hash={}var mone_article_tags = "{goog,aapl,msft,nok,nflx};;;{};;;{cramers-picks};;;{bret-jensen}" var ord = Math.floor(Math.random()*1000000000);Seeking Alpha Home | Market Currents | Long & Short Ideas | Investing for Income | ETFs & Portfolio Strategy | Macro View | Earnings Center | Investing Tools
Agreeing With Cramer: 10 Reasons Google Is a Great Value Play 4 comments | by: Bret Jensen June 3, 2011 | about: AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, NOK Font Size: Print Email Recommend0 Share this page Share SeekingAlpha.Initializer.AddAfterLoad(init_facebook); twittememeFrame(window.tweetmeme_style== "compact" ? "90x20": "50x61"); I know it is a crazy market when I start to agree with Cramer. However, his take on Wednesday that Google (GOOG) is a value stock worth buying is right on. Google is down a little over 15% from its recent high in January. There are a couple of reasons for the drop. Its previous CEO’s admission that it missed the social media wave, a poor performance by the current CEO on its last conference call, and spending, which is considered by some analysts to be overly aggressive. However, I think there are at least 10 reasons that Google is undervalued:It's projected PEG is now under .9 and it's still projected to grow revenues by more than 20% in both 2011, and 2012.
Google sells at just around 12.5 times 2011’s projected earnings of $33.93 after you strip out the approximately $100/share of net cash that is on its balance sheet. Droid is the number one smartphone platform and continues to grow market share. A side note, iPhone and Droid will eventually be the death knell for Nokia (NOK) in this space. This success in smartphones should greatly lift its revenues in mobile search.The recent acquisition of ITA will drive revenue growth substantially in travel searches. Its competitors were right to oppose the acquisition as it will put them at a competitive disadvantage.
Google has more than tripled earnings since 2006 and its earnings are still growing at a steady 15% - 20% clip.
Although Bing is making some progress in growing search market share, Google still controls roughly 2/3’s of the market and is able to charge much higher rates for key ad words. In addition, Google controls 97% of the market share in mobile search, which is growing rapidly.
It has a significant opportunity with YouTube, which now offers 6,000 movies on demand and it has been able to monetize this property with online advertising. It is a significant threat to market leader Netflix (NFLX) [which I think is overvalued as it is].
Most of Google’s software integrates easily with other products and it gives it away in most cases. This is one reason it has grown so rapidly in the smartphone market. All of this drives growth in its core search market and is a different model than either Microsoft (MSFT) or Apple (AAPL) use. It allows Google to build market share in new software markets rapidly compared with competitors.
The concurrent release of Google wallet and Google offers could overcome the company’s late start in the social media space and could eventually make it a strong competitor to Groupon and Living Social. It also could change the mobile payment space.
The acceleration of spending in 2011, should subside in 2012, helping margins. I also would rather have Google use its substantial cash by investing in businesses and personnel than making stupid acquisitions (See Microsoft acquisition of Skype for 8.5B).
Price Targets - Google is currently selling for $528. Given Google’s strong position in search, new growth markets, and consistent earnings and revenue growth, it deserves a much higher valuation. Conservatively it deserves a P/E of 14-16 on next year’s projected earnings of approximately $40 a share before adding back cash of around $100 a share. This gives me a price target of $660 to $740 a share. Price targets are at $700 at Credit Suisse, Stifel Nicolaus is at $750, and Goldman Sachs is at $690 on GOOG. BUY
Disclosure: I am long AAPL, GOOG, MSFT.
This article is tagged with: Long & Short Ideas, Cramer's Picks
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Comments (4) Add a comment var params = {'post_id': 273251, 'total_comments': '4', 'author_user_id': '498952'} new Ajax.Request('/articles/enqueue_tracking', { parameters: params, onSuccess: function(response) { $('tracking_container').innerHTML = response.responseText; }, onFailure: function() { } }); Register or Login to rate comments » ratings_hash = { }; twain Comments (22) The fundamental problem with Google is that it must always have the BEST search engine or else it will lose its dominance. While it has the best search engine right now, it is hard even for Babe Ruth to keep hitting home runs forever.
Let's not forget that before Google was number 1, Yahoo was the #1 search engine. There was also Altavista, which for a time looked dominant.
I should write my own article about the ugly, uncool company Microsoft, which I think is a better investment than Google simply for the fact that Microsoft does not have to have the best product in order to maintain the dominance of its niche.
The operating systems of Mac usually crush Windows, especially a few years ago when it was the Windows Vista era, and yet Microsoft has a permanent position at 80%-90% of the PC operating systems market.
If the time ever comes when a search engine (such as Bing) is better than Google, then it will almost immediately supplant Google as the market leading seach engine. bilton Comments (703) You should write your own article so you're readers can point out to you that this is the 21st century. Like Nokia, Microsoft has been dead money for many years. They missed the turn of the century where mobile consumers supplanted business IT as the control for computer decision making. tom33952 Comments (4) The GOOG train is still hurdling down the track since Larry Page threw out Eric Schmidt and took over the engineer's seat, but I'm not yet convinced Larry Page really knows how to drive the train. Successful CEOs need vision and strong leadership skills. Bret Jensen Comments (682)
That is my worry as well.....but they have some great products and engineers and a great head start. add_article_actions = 1; top_commenters_array = []; add_comment_actions(); write_report_abuse_all_in_one(); SeekingAlpha.Initializer.AddAfterLoad(link_edit_user_profile); comment_create_edit_link(); new_comment_on_comments_page(); Load All Comments reply_to_comment('Article_273251',"") mark_new_comments_if_tracking_source(); var comment_ids = []; new Ajax.Request('/memcached/comments_rating_by_discussion_id/245741', { evalScripts:true, method: 'get', onSuccess: function(response) { response.responseText.evalScripts(); comment_ids.each(function(id){writeRatingFromHash(id);}); }, onFailure: function() { } }); var author_info_popup_timeout; function ShowAuthorInfo(){ if (author_info_popup_timeout) clearTimeout(author_info_popup_timeout); $('article_author_info').style.display = "block"; } function HideAuthorInfo(){ author_info_popup_timeout = setTimeout(function() { $('article_author_info').style.display="none";},400); } function clearAuthorInfoPopupTimeout(){ if (author_info_popup_timeout) clearTimeout(author_info_popup_timeout); }
About the author: Bret Jensen
Chief Investment Strategist (CIS) for S.A.M (Simplified Asset Management), a long/short hedge fund based in Miami, Florida. Responsible for portfolio management and investment selection decisions. Fund was in top five percent of long/short hedge funds for total return in its first full... More Company: Simplified Asset Management Blog: Bret Jensen Invests Bret Jensen on Market Outlook Articles (149) Instablog (8) StockTalks (10) Recommends (4) Comments (682) if (/stats viewer/.test(readCookie("user_perm"))) document.write("Earnings"); Profile 893 Followers 29 Followings Follow.author_sidebar__follow_button_initiator('bret-jensen') Send Message
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twain Comments (22) The fundamental problem with Google is that it must always have the BEST search engine or else it will lose its dominance. While it has the best search engine right now, it is hard even for Babe Ruth to keep hitting home runs forever.
Bret Jensen Comments (682) 
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